Thrasher Analytics: Model Updates

Updated Models & Spotlight Charts 5/31/2026

Thrasher Analytics — Sun, 31 May 2026 17:23:58 GMT

Breadth data continues to look like crap. Let’s just begin there. It’s been over a month since the Advance-Decline Lines made a new high and while we did see Risk Appetite improve last week, more stocks are down 10% over the last three months than are up by that amount. Each of the four trading days last week saw the S&P 500 move higher but also on those days more stocks declined than advanced. That hasn’t happened in several decades. The market just cares about tech right now and as long as that theme continues, the market is fine rallying on a few stocks. Commercial Traders however are showing more interest in VIX contracts, with their net position now over half of the Open Interest based on VIX COT data.

There are three Spotlight Charts this week, looking at gold, S&P 500 being up 10% as of Friday, and a look at three different advance-decline lines that have been diverging for several weeks now.

Summary of Models

Index & Sector Performance Summary

Volatility Risk Trigger

Updated Models & Spotlight Charts 5/25/2026

Thrasher Analytics — Mon, 25 May 2026 20:47:50 GMT

A holiday shortened week pushed volatility lower, but I still believe the setup is there. Commercial Traders have increased their exposure to vol despite the dip in spot VIX and the VRT remains on a signal. Breadth improved slightly Friday but because of the holiday weekend, it was also one of the lowest volume days in nearly two months. Funds have spiked their allocation to equities at a record pace and the excitement around the SpaceX IPO (less than a month away) grows as investors ignore any possible market risk that is in front of them. I think that risk is greater than being price in right now. This week’s Spotlight Charts look at positioning data for Treasury bonds and two interesting relative performance charts for two sectors that could lead to a rebound.

Summary of Models

Index & Sector Performance Summary

Volatility Risk Trigger

Updated Models & Spotlight Charts 5/17/2026

Thrasher Analytics — Sun, 17 May 2026 23:00:13 GMT

Large cap stocks took a minor punch on Friday, falling a little more than 1%. Mid/Small/Micro are all now down -3% or more. Risk Appetite continues to fall; breadth data continues to worsen and all the market cares about right now is tech. That’s fine, as long as it keeps working. There’s enough overweight in the tech mega caps to bounce the market on its knee but if it fumbles there’s not much support from the other constituents to provide a cushion.

Summary of Models

Index & Sector Performance Summary

Volatility Risk Trigger

Updated Models & Spotlight Charts 5/10/2026

Thrasher Analytics — Sun, 10 May 2026 21:10:10 GMT

Another weekly new high for the S&P 500 and the other growth-oriented corners of the market. Tech continues to lead with semiconductors beginning to little parabolic in their trend. The S&P 500 isn’t being joined by many individual stocks. In fact, more stocks are making new 3-, 6-, and 12-month new lows than new highs, despite the continued fresh highs hit in the cap weighed Index. Friday’s record close was joined by 21% of stocks making a fresh 20-day low, in over thirty years there’s been just one other time I see that happening, November 2021 (SPX dipped and then rallied into ultimately a failed breakout and final new high ahead of a bear market. But a sample size of one is not enough to put weight on).

Looking more at the breadth data, 42% of stocks are above their 20-day MA, barely half are still above the 50-day MA. Meanwhile, the Index is now stretched above its own intermediate average, the topic of one of the Spotlight Charts. Advance-decline data has turned negative in the short-term (10-day and 21-day periods) and less than a third of stocks are up more than 5% in the last three months while SPX has rallied nearly 7% during that time.

The market seems entirely focused on semiconductors and a few mega cap names. NVDA is the last of the Mag 7 to report, which announces Q1 results next week. A lot seems riding on their results with many of the proverbial rubber bands tied to the chip trade and the bands are as stretched as they’ve ever been.

Summary of Models

Index & Sector Performance Summary

Volatility Risk Trigger

Updated Models & Spotlight Charts 5/3/2026

Thrasher Analytics — Sun, 03 May 2026 20:22:21 GMT

Another new high for the S&P 500 as the index gains almost 1% last week, led by energy, staples and real estate. Large caps were joined by Small and Micro Caps as well in hitting new highs. Mid caps are off just 79bps, still showing some strength. Risk Appetite is showing some concern, creating a divergence with price over the last two weeks. This week’s two Spotlight Charts look at trends in the Nasdaq 100 and Tech sector as well as a closer look at the Consumer Disc. sector.

Summary of Models

Index & Sector Performance Summary

Volatility Risk Trigger (upgraded)

The VRT chart below may look a little different, last week I released the additional indicator. The orange vertical lines are associated with the Conservative Volatility Risk Trigger (CVRT). This uses similar inputs as the original VRT but at a higher threshold and thus producing fewer signals.

Updated Models & Spotlight Charts 4/26/2026

Thrasher Analytics — Sun, 26 Apr 2026 19:51:20 GMT

This week’s note introduces the new Conservative VRT signal. I’m contemplating moving the VRT chart below the paywall, it’s been above since Thrasher Analytics moved to Substack. Those with free subscriptions, this one chart may be leaving your access soon.

Another new high for the S&P 500, with mega caps continuing to lead. The first Spotlight Chart takes a look at the relative performance of equal and cap weight markets with a specific focus on individual stock returns. Interesting to see Risk Appetite move lower on the week despite the new closing high for the Index. The S&P 500 gained just over half a percent last week, led by tech, energy, and staples. The second Spotlight Chart this week focuses on the semiconductor industry and the extreme strength it’s been showing since the broad market bottomed less than a month ago.

Summary of Models

Index & Sector Performance Summary

Volatility Risk Trigger (upgraded)

The VRT chart below may look a little different, I am (finally) releasing the additional indicator. The orange vertical lines are associated with the Conservative Volatility Risk Trigger (CVRT). This uses similar inputs as the original VRT but at a higher threshold and thus producing fewer signals.

Updated Models & Spotlight Charts 4/19/2026

Thrasher Analytics — Sun, 19 Apr 2026 19:57:27 GMT

Another new high for the micro, small, mid, and large cap indices. The S&P 1500 Advance-Decline Line confirms the advance, with mid and small caps showing strong performance. Friday’s advance saw 78.8% of large caps advance with over half outperforming. This week’s Spotlight Charts look at the strength in mid caps as well as the short-term stretched condition in large caps.

Summary of Models

Index & Sector Performance Summary

Volatility Risk Trigger

VRT remains at 24.

I’ll be doing an update to the VRT soon with the addition of a more aggressive signal using the same inputs but slightly relaxed thresholds. Stay tuned for more details.

Updated Models & Spotlight Charts 4/12/2026

Thrasher Analytics — Sun, 12 Apr 2026 18:07:09 GMT

The S&P 500 gained 3.56% last week, led by tech, industrials, and consumer disc. The Index claimed its major moving averages with the majority of stocks now trading back above their respective 200-day moving average, but the majority are still under the 50-day MA, despite the Index reclaiming its own. In fact, this has happened just one other time in 20+ years, getting back above the 200-day MA and 50-day MA with more than half above the long and less than half above the intermediate. The other time was in June ‘09 and came after SPX dipped back under the 200-day MA after reclaiming it for the first time in the new uptrend a month prior, so not a great comparison to today’s market.

Summary of Models

Index & Sector Performance Summary

Volatility Risk Trigger

VRT remains at 24. However, most components are still well off their trigger thresholds.

I’ll be doing an update to the VRT soon (hopefully next week!) with the addition of a more aggressive signal using the same inputs but slightly relaxed thresholds. Stay tuned for more details.

Updated Models & Spotlight Charts 4/5/2026

Thrasher Analytics — Sun, 05 Apr 2026 19:18:20 GMT

The S&P 500 finally got a bounce, rising 1.6% last week, led by real estate, materials, and communication sectors. I discussed the possibility of this in last week’s note as well in a few tweets for those that follow me on X (however, I have pulled back quite a bit on the amount of posting there I do). The Index recaptured its 50-week moving average and now it’s just under its 200-day MA. In the first Spotlight Chart this week, I share some of the important developments with a 200-day MA recovery and what to look for that has historically led to failures. This market is heavily influenced on the daily headlines surrounding the Iran war, while price supply/demand remains critical in the intermediate and long-term, we can’t deny the fact each Trump tweet or press conference doesn’t have major implications for where stocks and especially commodities are moving in the short-term. Keep that in mind as the war continues.

Summary of Models

Index & Sector Performance Summary

Volatility Risk Trigger

VRT remains at 24. However, most components are still well off their trigger thresholds.

I’ll be doing an update to the VRT soon with the addition of a more aggressive signal using the same inputs but slightly relaxed thresholds. Stay tuned for more details!

Updated Models & Spotlight Charts 3/29/2026

Thrasher Analytics — Sun, 29 Mar 2026 19:08:36 GMT

I’ve got a lot to unpack in this week’s note, including model updates and three Spotlight Charts. The S&P 500 trend has flipped negative, but I share in the first Spotlight Chart what buyers need to accomplish to turn this to a very bullish setup. 6-month lows moved up to 11.73%, still fairly low but they are seeing a slight expansion that should be monitored. 20-day lows however have been making lower highs, peaking at 45% on March 12th, 44.3% on March 20th, and 39.7% on Friday. The Mega caps continue to be the tail that wags the dog as they were on the way up, with not a huge amount of panic selling hitting the market in the rest of the stocks just yet. In fact, Spotlight Chart #2 shows an example of this that has happened in the market more than a handful of times in 30 years.

Summary of Models

Index & Sector Performance Summary

Volatility Risk Trigger

VRT moved up to +24. However, most components are still well off their trigger thresholds.

I’ll be doing an update to the VRT very soon with the addition of a more aggressive signal using the same inputs but slightly relaxed thresholds. Stay tuned for more details!

Updated Models & Spotlight Charts 3/22/2026

Thrasher Analytics — Sun, 22 Mar 2026 20:49:13 GMT

The S&P 500 continued lower, down almost -7% as of Friday. Last week I discussed the implications of breadth breaking down based on the number of stocks in up trends and the S&P 500 continuing lower, which is did last week. We now have an Index under its 200-day MA, most stocks doing the same, sentiment getting low, and momentum becoming “oversold”. However, there are some bright spots, bullish divergences showing in in Risk Appetite and Offense Sector performance, and VIX is not confirming the lower-low in SPX with higher highs. The Mag 7 are all down 13% or more (MSFT down the most at -30% with META and TSLA close behind at -25%). The Spotlight Charts this week look at the Bottom Fisher Indicator, used to spot capitulation in the equity market and Spotlight Chart #2 discusses volatility seasonality trends.

Summary of Models

Index & Sector Performance Summary

Volatility Risk Trigger

VRT is at 0. I’ll be doing an update to the VRT very soon with the addition of a more aggressive signal using the same inputs but slightly relaxed thresholds. Stay tuned for more details!

Updated Models & Spotlight Charts 3/15/2026

Thrasher Analytics — Sun, 15 Mar 2026 19:13:35 GMT

Stocks are moving lower and most are now in down trends, as measured by the percent above the 200-day MA. Thursday finally saw the first heavy selling day of this cycle with 77.8% of stocks moving lower. However, it was followed by another weak Index day but internals improved as just 48% declined and 68% outperformed during the session. We closed out the week with almost 70% of stocks now down double digits and the S&P 500 is sitting just above its long-term average. Bulls really will need to defend that level this week as internals are shifting to become a headwind. This week’s spotlight charts look at some breadth data as well as the rise in credit spreads.

Summary of Models

Index & Sector Performance Summary

Volatility Risk Trigger

VRT is at 0. I’ll be doing an update to the VRT very soon with the addition of a more aggressive signal using the same inputs but slightly relaxed thresholds. Stay tuned for more details!

Updated Models & Spotlight Charts 3/8/2026

Thrasher Analytics — Sun, 08 Mar 2026 17:03:55 GMT

As always, markets move fast! At the end of last week’s opening comments I said, “Of course it must be noted, the U.S. attacking Iran over the weekend will likely cause some volatility in equities and commodities.” Sure did. VIX went to 30 and crude oil jumped over 30% in a week! Despite the big moves in some corners of the market, equities largely haven’t had a huge panic (yet?). No major capitulation-type days of 90% or even 80% down days. Last year during the March/April sell-off there were five days of 80% stocks moving lower in a session. That can of course change in an instant. In the first Spotlight Chart I share the key levels in two markets I’m watching closely for possible signs of a trend change. With a news-driven market, price action can get very whippy.

Summary of Models

Index & Sector Performance Summary

Volatility Risk Trigger

VRT is at 0.

Updated Models & Spotlight Charts 3/1/2026

Thrasher Analytics — Sun, 01 Mar 2026 18:39:01 GMT

Technology stocks continue to be under pressure. But it’s not just U.S. tech that’s not moving higher this year. Chinese tech companies are also struggling, with KWEB (China Internet ETF) down -27%. The Spotlight Chart in the Sept. 28th note called the peak in KWEB, noting how stretched the trend was in the ETF, and it hasn’t looked back as it falls back near the April 2025 lows. While talking about sectors, average correlation of the major S&P sectors has fallen to the third lowest level in the last 20+ years on a 2-month lookback. However, on a 6-month lookback, it’s still elevated and not showing major concerns like it did at the Dot Com peak. The S&P 500 is down -1.43% and hasn’t had a 52-week high in 22 days, but price support continues to hold up, something I’ve been highlighting for the last several weeks. Advance-Decline Lines for the S&P 500, S&P 1500, and NYSE all hit new highs on Thursday last week, which sheds light on one of this week’s spotlight charts that looks at the average performance YTD for large cap and mega cap stocks - the opposite picture as what we saw in 2025.

Of course it must be noted, the U.S. attacking Iran over the weekend will likely cause some volatility in equities and commodities. While technically focused, it’s still important to recognize what’s going on in the world.

Summary of Models

Index & Sector Performance Summary

Volatility Risk Trigger

VRT remains at 24.

Updated Models & Spotlight Charts 2/22/2026

Thrasher Analytics — Sun, 22 Feb 2026 21:22:07 GMT

Yet another quiet week for domestic markets with the S&P 500 stock between intermediate and short-term moving averages. Mag 7 stocks remain under pressure with the rest of the market attempting to grab attention and appreciation. The caveat there is the massive weighting these handful of stocks have and why we aren’t seeing the market respond to broadening of breadth due to the weight around SPX neck by the tech/software space. Looking at flows, retail investors are clamoring to buy the dip in the software space, which isn’t a huge surprise based on recency bias of their performance. Meanwhile, AI companies remain in the news from both a new product launch announcements but also revising down growth estimates. I’ll let the CFAs in the room figure that one out. The U.S. company remains under a quasi-shutdown and the threat of an attack on Iran looms. NVDA reports earnings this week, which will be a big market focus.

Summary of Models

Index & Sector Performance Summary

Volatility Risk Trigger

VRT remains at 24.

Updated Models & Spotlight Charts 2/15/2026

Thrasher Analytics — Sun, 15 Feb 2026 18:59:23 GMT

A reminder, U.S. markets are closed on Monday for Presidents Day. Mega caps continue to be under pressure, and their sentiment score is now at the lowest level since October 2012. SPX finished lower last week with defensive sectors showing outperformance. Below I give an update on the VIX positioning data, which nailed the low in Vol last month. I also show another positioning chart for the U.S. Dollar as Spotlight Two and some possible major implications that are building there. The large cap index continues to respect its 100-day moving average as support, but more tests of this level could break it as both bulls and bears remain frustrated at the consolidation.

Summary of Models

Index & Sector Performance Summary

Volatility Risk Trigger

VRT remains at 24.

Updated Models & Spotlight Charts 2/8/2026

Thrasher Analytics — Sun, 08 Feb 2026 20:47:53 GMT

Another boring week for stocks, with the S&P 500 closing basically flat, holding key support (remember my note on the 100-day MA?) and sector rotation continuing to provide fuel to the uptrend fire. Growth and Offense Sector stocks were weak, but staples and industrials took the baton and keep running. This week I have just one spotlight topic with two charts: bitcoin. I share from a technical (chart) perspective, I think bitcoin’s decline may be running out of gas.

Summary of Models

Index & Sector Performance Summary

Volatility Risk Trigger

VRT remains at 24.

Updated Models & Spotlight Charts 2/1/2026

Thrasher Analytics — Sun, 01 Feb 2026 22:44:04 GMT

Well, the big story last week was of course what happened in silver. I’ve been writing for several weeks about the danger in silver prices and how over-extended price had become. The result was the largest single day decline in silver prices, a multi-sigma event and massive losses for many investors. Risk Appetite pulled back last week despite the rise in SPX. This week’s Spotlight Chart looks at the technology sector.

Be sure not to miss the first edition of Switchback, which went out earlier today (Sunday). Each week’s email will include the running list of stocks that meet the scan criteria as well as occasional charts of specific examples.

Summary of Models

Index & Sector Performance Summary

Volatility Risk Trigger

VRT remains at 24.

Updated Models & Spotlight Charts 1/25/2026

Thrasher Analytics — Sun, 25 Jan 2026 19:46:59 GMT

A slightly down week for the S&P 500 during its 4 trading days. Last week I shared the compression occurring in the VIX and immediately we saw spot volatility jump to 21 before reversing back down to the teens the following day. The equity index has continued to hold support, testing the 50-day MA last week with breadth still mostly showing some improvement. Gold made a new weekly high in U.S. dollars that got confirmation in the Yen, Euro, Franc, and Aussie Dollar. The Spotlight Charts this week look at support levels for equities and an interesting ratio chart of two major indices that are starting to show signs of reversing higher. An update on the silver positioning data I’ve been discussing for the last couple of weeks… last week both small and large traders pulled back their net position. Large traders are now at a 44th %tile position.

This week the market will be watching 2026’s first FOMC with no market expectation of a cute. The topic of a gov’t shutdown is now back in the spotlight with Democrat making threats, so we’ll see how all that plays out.

If you didn’t read my write up on Risk Appetite, be sure to check that out. I’ll be doing a longer post this week on the Stock Screens. I’ll be sharing many examples and diving into more detail about the inputs to the screens and the thought process behind them. The bulk of that post will be for paid subscribers only.

Summary of Models

Index & Sector Performance Summary

Volatility Risk Trigger

VRT dropped back to 24 after the move to 20 in spot VIX.

Updated Models & Spotlight Charts 1/18/2026

Thrasher Analytics — Sun, 18 Jan 2026 20:37:21 GMT

The S&P 500 closed basically flat on the week as the market prepared for another shortened week in the U.S. (market is closed on Monday for MLK Jr. Day). Maestro Model improved with Risk Appetite unchanged. An add’l VIX chart is in this week’s note as the VRT gets closer to firing. VIX Commercial Traders picked up more of the Open Interest pie, now with their net position 97% of OI. Silver got up over 105% above its 200-day MA last week with small traders rising to the 89th %tile as an update to last week’s Spotlight Two Chart. This week’s two Spotlight Charts both look at breadth data. One showing bullish confirmation of the uptrend and an interesting divergence of data between two Indices sending different messages.

Stay tuned for more information about the soon-to-be launched stock ideas scan list. I’ll be publishing scan results each week once launched. More information will be shared soon, including a look at what goes into tools creating the list. Of course, this will only be shared with paid subscribers.

Summary of Models

Index & Sector Performance Summary

Volatility Risk Trigger

VRT remains at 48 and is the system’s internals are getting close to moving to a signal threshold.