Updated Models & Spotlight Chart 4/13/2025

Markets Bounce with Key Price Levels Needing to Hold

Thank You.
I moved Thrasher Analytics from a standalone website to Substack in mid-October 2024. Since then, paid subscribers have continued to climb, and Followers have as well. In fact, 700 of you have signed up to receive either the paid or free version of Thrasher Analytics as of last week. While the market may not be in an uptrend right now, I’m encouraged to see the chart above continue to move up and to the right.

Thank you to all that have shown an interest in receiving my research. It’s never lost on me that there’s a lot of content you’re able to seek out and I appreciate each person that choses to spend time reading what I write each week.

Okay, back to the market…

The S&P 500 just had its best weekly finish since November 2023, rising almost 6%, led by the XLK, XLI, and XLF sectors. All while the Mag 7 are still in deep drawdowns ranging from -17% to -47%. Last week I wrote and shared charts that made the argument we could see a bounce higher following the decline into a down trend in the S&P 500. Ranging from an Aggressive Bullish Signal in the Maestro Model, to a stretched VIX making a 5-sigma move, along with a study on back-to-back gap downs, 6-month lows, and the proprietary Bottom Fisher indicator. This week’s letter looks at the key price levels for the S&P 500 as well as Nasdaq 100, and Russell 2000. Bitcoin is included in one of the Spotlight Charts.

The market got a rebound with the announcement of Trumps about-face with global tariffs. But it was released that while most electronics were made exempt, it does seem there will be semiconductor and consumer electronic tariffs expected to be announced in the coming months should negotiations with China and other countries not show to be fruitful. So, while we got some reprieve this week, this circus is far from being over and the headline risk (in both directions) is always possible. Also note that U.S. markets will be closed on Friday in observance of Good Friday.

Summary of Models

Index & Sector Performance Summary