Updated Models & Spotlight Chart 2/2/2025

Support Holds But Risk Appetite Is Under Pressure

The much anticipated first round of Trump tariffs have been announced so we’ll now begin to see how the market digests the news and how companies adjust expectations as the tariffs go into effect. This comes as we get deeper into earnings season and the market works its way through a minor pullback in the Index but a deeper drawdown for many stocks. Half of large caps are down more than -10% but all that seems to matter is what NVDA does each day. Friday saw a move lower in the SPX and 52% of its price action was a result of what NVDA did. I share my thoughts on the NVDA chart and its implications with Bloomberg on Friday (click here to read). Friday saw a move off the lows but 76% of stocks did close lower and less than half outperformed. More on this in the Breadth note on Tuesday night. Maestro Model made a bullish shift on Friday, but Risk Appetite did not, moving lower during the week.

This week’s Spotlight Chart takes a broad look at the market for February, evaluating the seasonal trend of the market for the month.

Summary of Models

Index & Sector Performance Summary