Updated Models & Spotlight Chart 5/4/2025

Mid Cal Outflows and New A-D High

The S&P 500 rose 2.9% last week, led by XLI, XLK, and XLF sectors. Friday was a strong move up with 91% of large cap stocks advancing and 57% outperforming. 52% of stocks also reached a 20-day high on Friday and the Thrust Composite has risen to +4, a significant level. Last week I noted I was watching a short-term breadth thrust for the Nasdaq, that did hit on Friday with 80.2% of stocks rising above the short-term moving average. The U.S. equity market has done a good job digesting some bad news, both economic and corporate. GDP came in negative (not a big surprise) and two mega cap stocks (AMZN and AAPL) had somewhat disappointing Q1 earnings, both got shrugged off.

This week’s Spotlight Charts At one breadth stat that hit a new high last week and if there’s any significance to the development. Another chart looks at a key level of resistance that major markets are approaching and a third checks on fund flows for mid cap stocks.

Summary of Models

Index & Sector Performance Summary

Volatility Risk Trigger

VIX Continues to move lower, finishing the week below 23. The VRT remains at 24, below a threshold for a signal.