Updated Models & Spotlight Charts 9/21/2025

Five Stocks Do Most of the Heavy Lifting

The S&P 500 put some more points on the board last week, hitting another new all-time high. The strength has been impressive. But it’s hard to not notice that while the SPX is up 4.02% over the last month, 64% of that gain is from just five stocks (GOOGL, TSLA, AVGO, APPL, and ORCL). I continue to focus on breadth because while it’s not a signal it does identify the environment the market is in. While that environment can persist for a long period of time (requiring the use of other forms of analysis in decision making), it can lead to turning points in trends. Last week the market got through, yet another FOMC announcement and rate cut. This week will be a little lighter on economic news, with PCE inflation data coming out on Friday. As we near the end of September, this is historically when bearish seasonality picks up (if it’s going to) for the month. As always, seasonal trends aren’t required to be followed but simply show patterns in how the market moves at different parts of the year.

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Summary of Models

Index & Sector Performance Summary

Volatility Risk Trigger

The VRT fell to 42 for a few days and then moved back to 72 on Friday.