Updated Models & Spotlight Charts 7/29/2025

Rising VIX Risk & Heavily Reliance on Tech Stocks for Gains

I apologize for the late note this week. I was traveling for part of last week and flew back Monday evening.

The S&P 500 remains positive, inching slowly day by day. This lack of daily volatility has pushed it into thin area of a sample size for periods of no large up or down days in price. Two of the Spotlight Charts take a look at the historical significance. This comes when the Volatility Risk Trigger has also issued a signal of heightened risk of a spike in the VIX. I’ve discussed in prior recent notes the lack of breadth expansion in new high lists. This week I discuss the lack of new lows as well and what that means for the market. Finally, I take a look at sector performance since the April low and the large contribution made by the tech sector.

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Summary of Models

Index & Sector Performance Summary

Volatility Risk Trigger

VRT has it its threshold for a signal, opening the proverbial window for a spike in volatility.